![]() It’s also why they’re not going to be eager to pressure him to step down, or to push for a contested convention. That’s why they didn’t enter the primary. And they see that he’s popular with Democratic voters. They see Democrats under his leadership overperforming in elections. People like Pritzker and Newsom are happy overall with Biden’s policy achievements - as is Klein himself. Whatever Biden’s weakness with the public as a whole, he’s clearly still very popular with Democratic primary voters. These are not numbers that suggest an ambivalent electorate. Phillips got 1.7 percent, which is a rounding error. In South Carolina, where Biden was on the ballot, he got a stunning 96.2 percent of the vote. Dean Phillips, and he’s in the process of embarrassing that opponent badly.īiden wasn’t even on the ballot in New Hampshire and still got 63.9 percent of the vote against Phillips’s 19.6 percent. Biden does have a primary challenger in Minnesota Rep. And those internal polls likely reflect what the primaries are showing, which is that Joe Biden is very popular with Democratic voters. ![]() People like Pritzker and Newsom are smart, ambitious, and able to read internal polls. If Illinois governor JB Pritzker is a great political talent, and decides not to run, who’s Klein to say he knows better? Or, on the other hand, if Pritzker is too foolish to see the great truths Klein is penning, why should we think that Pritzker would be canny enough to defeat a sitting president in a primary? Those beliefs seem like they’re in conflict. And Klein simultaneously believes that all these figures are fools who should have seen Biden’s vulnerability and challenged him in the primary. He believes all these figures are astute political actors who could do better than Biden in a general election. Klein is disappointed that talented younger Democrats - like Whitmer, Newsom, Raphael Warnock, and Pete Buttigieg - looked at the midterm elections and decided that they didn’t want to challenge Biden. And there Biden has been doing much better, despite his low approval numbers. There have been a bunch of elections since 2020. We do have indications of where things are heading other than polls, though. And considering Trump’s multitude of legal problems and busy upcoming schedule of court hearings, there’s good reason to believe this year will get worse for the presumptive GOP nominee before it gets better. But polls even in March don’t tell us a lot about who’s going to win in November. You’d rather be ahead for sure, and Trump’s relatively strong polling is a reminder that he can and may win. We’re in February, not January, but the point holds the general election campaign hasn’t really started and most voters aren’t paying attention yet. ![]() Elliot Morris noted that polls in January of an election year have “basically the track record of an (untrained) monkey throwing darts at a dartboard.” But early polls just aren’t that predictive polling analyst G. The prospect of another Trump presidency is terrifying, so Klein’s concern is understandable.
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